MACRO REGIME SNAPSHOT
▌ REGIME ANALYSIS
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KEY INDICATORS
FED FUNDS
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10Y YIELD
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2Y-10Y SPREAD
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CPI YoY
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CORE PCE YoY
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10Y BREAKEVEN
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UNEMPLOYMENT
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FED BALANCE SHEET
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M2 YoY
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HY SPREAD
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REAL GDP YoY
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TRADE-WTDL USD
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DRUCKENMILLER FRAMEWORK
LIQUIDITY REGIME
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MONETARY POLICY
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INFLATION REGIME
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CREDIT CONDITIONS
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GROWTH TREND
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RISK APPETITE
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SYSTEM LIQUIDITY
▌ LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS
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FED BALANCE SHEET
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M2 MONEY SUPPLY
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OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPO (RRP)
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TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT
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FED BALANCE SHEET — Total Assets ($T)
M2 MONEY SUPPLY — $T
REVERSE REPO + TGA — $T
INTEREST RATES & YIELD CURVE
▌ RATES ANALYSIS
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FED FUNDS RATE (TARGET)
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2-YEAR TREASURY
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10-YEAR TREASURY
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30-YEAR TREASURY
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10Y–2Y SPREAD
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10Y–3M SPREAD
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YIELD CURVE — 2Y / 5Y / 10Y / 30Y (%)
YIELD CURVE SPREAD — 10Y–2Y (bps)
INFLATION METRICS
▌ INFLATION ANALYSIS
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CPI YoY %
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CORE CPI YoY %
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PCE YoY %
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CORE PCE YoY % (Fed Target)
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5Y BREAKEVEN INFLATION
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10Y BREAKEVEN INFLATION
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CPI / CORE CPI / PCE / CORE PCE — YoY %
BREAKEVEN INFLATION — 5Y & 10Y (%)
ECONOMIC GROWTH
▌ GROWTH ANALYSIS
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REAL GDP (QoQ Annualized %)
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INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YoY %
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RETAIL SALES YoY %
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HOUSING STARTS (SAAR, K)
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REAL GDP — QoQ Annualized %
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION — YoY %
RETAIL SALES — YoY %
LABOR MARKET
▌ LABOR MARKET ANALYSIS
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
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NONFARM PAYROLLS (MoM, K)
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JOB OPENINGS (M)
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QUITS RATE %
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LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
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AVG HOURLY EARNINGS YoY %
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE — %
NONFARM PAYROLLS — MoM Change (K)
JOB OPENINGS — Millions (JOLTS)
CREDIT CONDITIONS
▌ CREDIT ANALYSIS
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HY OAS SPREAD (bps)
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IG OAS SPREAD (bps)
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BANK CREDIT YoY %
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CONSUMER CREDIT YoY %
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CREDIT SPREADS — HY & IG OAS (bps)
HY SPREAD — Last 2Y (bps)
US DOLLAR & FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
▌ DOLLAR ANALYSIS
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TRADE-WEIGHTED USD (BROAD)
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REAL EFFECTIVE EXCH RATE
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USD MAJOR CURRENCIES INDEX
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TRADE-WEIGHTED USD — Broad Index